An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead


Employees work at the BMW manufacturing plant in Greer, South Carolina, October 19, 2022.

Bob Strong | Reuters

The economy sent a low-key signal Thursday that a recession is looming — and that the Federal Reserve could be making a policy mistake by continuing to try to slow things down.

According to the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index, conditions worsened in September, with the gauge down 0.4% from the month before and off 2.8% for the six-month period.

“The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before year end,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at the…


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