Housing inflation will almost surely fall soon, say economists

Housing is perhaps the most consequential category in the consumer price index, a key inflation barometer.

As the largest expense for an average U.S. household, shelter accounts for more than a third of the CPI weighting, the most of any other consumer good or service. That gives housing an outsized influence on the overall direction of inflation data.

Housing inflation has been stubbornly high for months, according to CPI data. But economists think it has peaked and is on the precipice of a reversal.

“I know this with about as high a degree of confidence as one could have,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said of falling housing…