Stagflation risk rises as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy

The Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates in an effort to defuse an explosive year of price inflation. But global forces could neutralize the effects of that tightening of monetary policy, and keep inflation high.

Some observers believe the U.S. government may have misread the looming threat of inflation. During the pandemic, Uncle Sam dispersed historic sums of cash to blunt widespread economic damage. Analysts say this stimulus produced strong household savings. A boom in demand for durable goods followed.

This surge in demand came as global supply chains stalled out, and a persistent bout of inflation followed. In March 2022, prices across all categories rose to historic levels, 8.5%…