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This index tracks economic uncertainty — and it’s pretty clear about what’s in store for stocks through Election Day


Economic uncertainty needs to lessen significantly in order for the U.S. bull market to continue. That’s a tall order. With uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this November’s election (both presidential and congressional), as well as a lack of progress with the COVID-19 pandemic, economic uncertainty in the U.S. is likely to stay elevated — if not go higher— at least until Election Day.

Stock investors hate uncertainty. Until recently, this inverse correlation between uncertainty and the stock market had made sense theoretically, but was impossible to confirm empirically. Uncertainty would seem to be a subjective matter, and therefore difficult to measure….


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