Falling avocado shipments could hurt Chipotle’s margins, analyst says

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s margins could take a hit from the predicted decline in avocado shipments next quarter, according to Truist analyst Jake Bartlett.

The Hass Avocado Board is forecasting a 5.8% decline in avocado shipments during the third quarter compared with last year. A smaller supply of avocados could cause prices to spike and make it more expensive for Chipotle to whip up its guacamole.

Bartlett estimated in a Wednesday note to clients that avocados account for only 5% to 10% of Chipotle’s cost of goods sold, but they can still have a significant impact on its margins. He is forecasting that a 10% spike in the…